AGP Executive Report

Sea Access Debate: Education Minister Prof. Berhanu Nega says Ethiopia’s push for sovereign Red Sea access is an inevitable national imperative tied to security, trade, and demographics, arguing it should be pursued for mutual benefit. Nile Redress: Former Irrigation State Minister Birhanu Lenjiso tells ENA Ethiopia has legal and economic grounds to seek redress over historical Nile inequities, citing Egypt’s heavy use versus Ethiopia’s limited utilization. Sudan Spillover Watch: A UN-linked report and US warnings highlight fears Sudan’s war could regionalize, with cross-border networks and external support repeatedly raised. AU Preventive Diplomacy: AU leaders back a more anticipatory “Trigger Model” for conflict prevention, while member states still differ on funding a proposed USD 1 billion Peace Fund. Health Data Push: Ethiopia launches a national Health and Demographic Surveillance System network to fix major vital statistics gaps, noting only about 16% of deaths are officially registered. Housing Finance & Crisis: Ethiopia signs an IFC-backed plan to create a Mortgage Refinance Company, but analysts stress liquidity alone won’t solve the structural housing shortage. Property Court Freeze: Ethiopia’s Federal High Court reaffirms an injunction freezing 32 Noah Real Estate homes amid buyer disputes and delayed delivery claims. Rail Strain: Addis Ababa commuters face longer waits as the light rail runs below capacity due to rolling stock and foreign currency constraints.

Nile Tensions: Italy’s PM Meloni’s government says it can mediate between Egypt and Ethiopia over Nile waters, offering dialogue if both sides agree, as Cairo and Addis trade sharper accusations over the GERD. Logistics Modernization: Ethiopia’s Ethiopian Shipping and Logistics (ESL) launched a digital customer self-service platform for port and cargo services, including tracking, booking, demurrage, digital payments and AI chat support. U.S.-Ethiopia Ties: Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos met U.S. Assistant Secretary Frank Garcia to discuss expanding trade, investment, and defense-security cooperation. Livestock Exports: Ethiopia’s livestock export earnings rose to $128.3m, with officials pushing to reach $1bn by boosting abattoir capacity and fixing supply-chain bottlenecks. Regional Security: Reports say Sudan’s army repelled an RSF-linked attack in Blue Nile, with fighters reportedly retreating toward the Ethiopian border. Horn Violence: East Wollega accounts claim 68 dead as churches burn in clashes tied to Abiy-allied forces. Sports & Integrity: Kenyan runner Emmanuel Wanyonyi’s 1000m world record was ratified, while Ethiopia’s Tiruye Mesfin received a three-year ban for abnormalities in her biological passport. Environment & Youth: Nigerian and Ethiopian youths planted trees in Abuja under Ethiopia’s Green Legacy-linked initiative to fight climate change.

Ethiopia-Netherlands Talks: Ethiopia and the Netherlands held their fourth political consultations in Addis Ababa, reviewing bilateral cooperation and regional and global issues, including peace and multilateral reform. Horn of Africa Policy: IGAD urged member states to use artificial intelligence to speed development, deepen regional integration, and improve food security, climate early warning, and healthcare—while stressing data sovereignty and shared regulation. Telecom Milestone: Safaricom Ethiopia said it has surpassed 15 million 90-day active subscribers, marking five years since receiving its unified licence. Digital Child Safety: UNICEF released a report warning that technology-facilitated child sexual exploitation and abuse affects millions, including Ethiopia among countries studied. Energy and Industry: Ethiopia’s green energy push and electricity export gains featured in coverage, alongside broader regional investment interest in infrastructure and refining projects.

Telecom Update: Ethio telecom says it has successfully completed the first year of its three-year “Next Horizon: Digital & Beyond” strategy, aiming to grow its customer base to 96.2 million by 2026/27 and expand 4G coverage to 95% of the population. Sudan Watch: A UN-backed investigation warns foreign fighters and external support networks are fueling Sudan’s war, strengthening both sides’ capabilities and worsening attacks on civilians. Climate Risk: UNICEF warns the coming El Niño could expose more than 162 million children across Eastern and Southern Africa to hunger, flooding, disease and school disruption. Energy & Diplomacy: The AU’s environment director praises Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative for climate adaptation and mitigation, biodiversity gains and ecosystem restoration, urging Ethiopia to share its experience regionally. Regional Security: Tigray residents tell ENA they want stronger community resistance against abuses by the illegal TPLF faction, including forced recruitment and trafficking. Transport & Trade: China’s air cargo expansion includes a new Ethiopian Airlines freighter link between Chengdu and Addis Ababa, boosting direct cargo ties between Southwest China and Africa.

Mortgage Finance Push: PM Abiy Ahmed oversaw an Ethiopia–IFC framework to create a 100 billion birr mortgage refinance company, with at least $200m from IFC, aiming to ease liquidity gaps and expand mortgage access nationwide. Green Legacy Abroad: Ethiopia is sending 24 youths to Zimbabwe, Ghana and Nigeria to share Green Legacy know-how under the “Plant Africa Fraternity Initiative,” after planting 805.3m seedlings in one day. Nile Tensions: Former US Africa official Tibor Nagy urged Egypt to accept a “new reality” and recognize Ethiopia’s right to develop Abay/Nile water resources. Air Cargo Expansion: Ethiopian Airlines is reportedly nearing a deal for up to 10 Boeing freighters (likely including 777Fs) to speed capacity for a new African hub. Food Prices Watch: Maize price spreads rose in Ethiopia from $378/ton (June) to $414/ton (July), while Tanzania stayed lowest at $227/ton. Child Safety Online: UNICEF says about 1 in 5 internet-using youths aged 12–17 faced online sexual abuse, with nearly 60% occurring on social media.

Ethiopia’s Wheat Push: Ethiopia says it has reached self-sufficiency in wheat, replacing imports with domestic supply under the National Wheat Flagship Program, while millers still complain about high local prices. ECX Trade Surge: The Ethiopia Commodity Exchange hit 167.8% of its annual target, trading about 48.83 billion birr and expanding inspection and grading services. Health on the Ground: The Ministry of Health says Ethiopia’s rainy-season volunteerism is expanding preventive care, including free screenings and treatment campaigns that reached nearly 15 million people last year. National Revival Calendar: Ethiopia will mark Pagume with five days of events focused on revival, resilience, diversity and development, including large-scale health services and blood donation. Power and Exports: Ethiopia reported a 25% jump in electricity exports and record revenue, while exporters say macroeconomic reforms are easing market access. Coffee Deal Momentum: China and Ethiopia plan to expand coffee trade via closer industrial and supply-chain partnerships, including deeper processing links. IFC Backs Private Investment: Finance Minister Ahmed Shide met IFC’s chief to scale private capital through PPPs and projects in transport, energy and housing. Regional Climate Warning: UNICEF warns El Niño could put over 162 million children across eastern and southern Africa at risk, naming Ethiopia among the hardest-hit countries. Aviation Watch: Reports say Ethiopian Airlines is nearing a deal to buy up to 10 Boeing long-haul freighters as it builds an African hub strategy. Namibia Air Clarification: Namibia’s works and transport ministry distanced itself from a leaked document about Ethiopian Airlines talks, saying discussions are ongoing but no official agreement has been concluded.

Aviation Compensation: Nearly seven years after Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302, Kenyan families of the 32 victims are set to receive a combined $87.3 million from Boeing settlements, with the payout split across two government-linked compensation funds. Public Health: Ethiopia will launch its first nationwide blood lead level study in the Ethiopian New Year, targeting children 6–59 months and women 15–49, after estimates suggest 35–36% of under-fives have elevated lead levels. Food Security: A strengthened El Niño is pushing 60 million people toward hunger, with Ethiopia reporting 10.2 million in acute food insecurity and urgent need for assistance. Regional Infrastructure: South Sudan and Kenya have agreed to mobilise resources for the Juba–Torit–Kapoeta–Nadapal highway, a key trade link tied to the LAPSSET corridor. Media Freedom: Addis Standard says security raided its newsroom, seized equipment, and the outlet faces eviction and legal pressure, echoing wider concerns about journalist detentions and crackdowns. Somalia–Ethiopia Tensions: Somalia’s NSA confirmed Somali troops crossed into Ethiopia’s Somali region, while Mogadishu says the Ankara Declaration now governs relations with Ethiopia. Ethiopia–EU Trade Talks: Ethiopia and the EU’s Global Gateway were discussed as complementary to the Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda, aiming to align priorities for investment and transformation.

EU–Ethiopia Economic Dialogue: Ethiopia’s Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda and the EU’s Global Gateway were framed as complementary paths to align priorities and speed private-sector-led growth, with focus on stabilization, sector liberalization and institution modernization. Coffee Value Addition Push: Ethiopia and China’s Yunnan Province agreed to deepen cooperation to move beyond exporting beans—toward processing, roasting, instant coffee and packaging—aiming to turn specialty coffee into higher-value investment. Digital Health Scaling in East Africa: Regional coverage highlights a shift from digital health pilots to wider rollout, with AI diagnostics, telemedicine and hospital systems moving onto procurement agendas. #ትሰማ Gender Justice Debate: Ethiopia’s campaign “Let Her Be Heard” is driving a broader cultural argument over why violence cases fail to deliver justice, calling for coordinated, funded and transparent action. Refugee Service Reforms: Ethiopia’s Deputy PM said reforms at the Refugee and Returnee Service are improving culture, service quality and livelihoods through initiatives like “Bounty of the Basket.” Cybersecurity Warning: Reports say hackers are using fake recruiter coding tests to deliver malware targeting developers, including in Ethiopia. Airline Business Note: Ethiopian Airlines is reportedly exploring a management role to help a proposed Namibian national airline get off the ground.

Xenophobia Response: Nigeria’s Abia State says Gov. Alex Otti has launched an intervention to protect, repatriate and reintegrate Abia indigenes affected by xenophobic attacks in South Africa, with the Ministry of Poverty Alleviation and Social Protection coordinating evacuations and support for stranded citizens. Mass Repatriation: Ethiopia’s Ministry of Women and Social Affairs reports coordinated repatriation of 2,463 undocumented Ethiopians from Saudi Arabia after “stranded” conditions, with temporary facilities, rehabilitation and family reunification support. Red Sea & Nile Water Politics: Former Ethiopian Water Minister Shiferaw Jarso alleges Egypt has plotted to cut Ethiopia off from Red Sea access and weaken Ethiopia through internal divisions, while another ENA report says Egypt’s downstream reservoir evaporation losses could be reduced by storing more water in Ethiopia’s cooler highlands. BRICS Summit 2026: India will host the 18th BRICS Summit on Sept. 12–13 in New Delhi, but Iran–UAE tensions threaten consensus on joint statements. Ethiopia’s Aviation & Trade Links: Ethiopian Airlines is expanding China-Africa cargo with new Chengdu–Addis Ababa freighter routes, while Ethiopia–India ties get a boost as an Indian National Defense College delegation visits Ethiopia.

Executive Presidency Push: Ethiopia’s national dialogue endorsed constitutional changes to merge the prime minister and ceremonial president into a powerful executive presidency, with parliament set to consider the proposal when it reconvenes in October—supporters say it could unify leadership, while critics warn it may let Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed consolidate control. Repatriation Drive: Ethiopia repatriated nearly 100,000 nationals from abroad over the past 12 months, including 98,900 returned in the latest round, with authorities saying returning people are being supported at temporary facilities and reunited with families. Health Supply Win: The Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Service (EPSS) won a gold award at the Africa Supply Chain Excellence Awards for improved medicine procurement and supply-chain reforms, citing digital transformation and data-driven decisions. TVET and Jobs: YES-PACT highlighted Ethiopia’s TVET reforms and aid strategy updates, saying recommendations are moving into implementation and linking skills training with digitalisation and AI. Horn Rainfall Alert: IGAD’s early warning for Oct–Dec 2026 points to wetter-than-normal conditions, with southern Ethiopia and parts of the region facing major implications for farming, water, health, and food security.

Executive Presidency Push: Ethiopia’s weeks-long national dialogue has backed constitutional changes to merge the prime minister and ceremonial presidency into a new “executive presidency,” a move that could extend PM Abiy Ahmed’s control and be put to parliament as early as October. Drought-Driven Displacement: In South Sudan’s Eastern Equatoria’s Kauto area, prolonged drought and hunger are pushing hundreds to abandon homes, sell livestock, and move toward mining areas and even Ethiopia for food and water. Health Access in Focus: A new review on kidney transplants across Africa reports encouraging one-year survival rates in countries including Ethiopia, but warns that high costs, weak infrastructure, and limited follow-up still block wider access. Telecom & EVs: Ethio Telecom awarded BYD electric vehicles to winners of its TelePlay gaming campaign in a public lottery at Meskel Square, Addis Ababa. Digital ID Momentum: Ethiopia is exploring how a digital ID system could boost national GDP, as Kenya and others accelerate digital identity and tackle related risks. Sports Spotlight: Ethiopia’s Zenebe Aberu won the women’s 42km elite title at the Enugu City International Marathon, while Ethiopia’s athletes also featured strongly across recent East African races. Business & Trade: Ethiopia-linked stories also surfaced around regional development and investment themes, including Ethiopia’s growing role in value chains like beeswax and bamboo.

Maritime Diplomacy: Thailand’s deputy PM and foreign minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow met Ethiopia’s top officials in Addis Ababa, signing an MoU for regular high-level political consultations and backing Ethiopia’s push for sea access. Energy & Governance: Ethiopian Electric Power says compensation disputes are blocking grid expansion, with over 7 billion birr tied up in legal fights after unclear implementation of a revised expropriation framework. Regional Security: Fighting in Sudan’s Blue Nile border area Geisan has displaced nearly 20,000 people, as RSF and allied forces intensify offensives near Ethiopia. Sports Spotlight: Ethiopia’s Addisu Gobena set a Sydney Marathon men’s course record (2:04:42) while Peres Jepchirchir won the women’s race; Ethiopia also swept Hyderabad Marathon elite titles. Culture & Trade: Ethiopian coffee launched its first dedicated Habesha café in Islamabad and Rawalpindi, marking a new people-to-people link. Economy Watch: Reports highlight mounting pressure on Ethiopia’s birr as hard-currency demand rises and central bank support struggles to stop depreciation.

Sydney Marathon Glory: Ethiopia’s Addisu Gobena smashed the Sydney Marathon course record to win the men’s race in 2:04:42, edging compatriot Chimdessa Debele Gudeta by four seconds, while Kenya’s Peres Jepchirchir dominated the women’s race in 2:18:31. Horn of Africa Borders: VP Taban Deng Gai urged countries to treat the disputed Ilemi Triangle as a “zone of discussion,” rejecting maps that depict it as part of Kenya. Red Sea & Maritime Strategy: Commentaries highlight Ethiopia’s push for legitimate maritime access as the Horn’s security balance shifts amid Red Sea tensions and changing U.S. engagement. Energy Pressure in the Region: Kenya’s growing reliance on imported electricity—much of it from Ethiopia—raises concerns about supply risk during droughts. Local Voices in AI: A study says Ethiopian sources are barely cited in AI answers on humanitarian crises, with local institutions accounting for a small share of citations. Tax Crackdown: Ethiopia’s Ministry of Revenues is installing high-definition cameras in excise-heavy breweries and bottling plants to curb tax evasion.

Sydney Marathon: Ethiopian Addisu Gobena won the 2026 Sydney Marathon, smashing the men’s course record with 2:04:42, while Kenya’s Peres Jepchirchir narrowly missed the women’s mark, finishing in 2:18:31. Sudan Spillover Fears: Reports say fighting in Sudan’s Blue Nile is drawing closer to Ethiopia’s border, with the Sudanese army claiming drones came from Ethiopian territory and deploying an “elite brigade” to reinforce the Bakori axis. Ethiopia’s Dialogue Push: A Nigerian interfaith leader praised Ethiopia’s National Dialogue Conference as a model, urging Ethiopians to keep dialogue as the route to peace. Water & Sea Access: Ethiopia’s right to build dams and its quest for Red Sea sea access drew fresh commentary, with Thailand’s foreign minister saying neighbors should understand Ethiopia’s legitimate maritime needs. Ethiopian Airlines Cargo: Ethiopian Airlines launched a direct Chengdu–Addis Ababa freighter link, boosting cargo routes between southwest China and Africa. Health & Policy: Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative was highlighted at WHO Africa talks, while the National Bank of Ethiopia warned the public against unlicensed hawala and remittance operators. Sports (Local/Regional): Ethiopia’s Zenebe Aberu won the Enugu City International Marathon women’s 42km title, with Kenya’s Edwin Kipyego taking the men’s race.

Money Transfers Crackdown: Ethiopia’s National Bank warned the public against unlicensed Somali-linked hawala and remittance operators, naming dozens it says are not authorized and warning of losses, delays, and possible legal action. Regional Maritime Security: Ethiopia joined Somalia, Yemen and Djibouti in Nairobi to strengthen Red Sea and Gulf of Aden maritime law enforcement, with UNODC and partners pushing better information-sharing; Ethiopia also proposed a National Maritime Information Centre. Macroeconomic Planning Update: The IMF will replace Ethiopia’s macro forecasting model by September 2026 with a new dynamic framework tailored to Ethiopia’s transition to a floating exchange rate and debt sustainability work. Power Project Funding: Koysha Hydroelectric needs about €500M more to finish, with GERD already supplying 52% of electricity and Koysha targeting full operations in 2029. Education Results Warning: Grade 12 pass rates rose slightly to 12.8%, but coverage stresses the system still leaves most students failing to reach basic proficiency. Trade Implementation Gap: Ethiopia’s AfCFTA tariff schedules lag, with only 16 countries covering all goods categories despite wider submissions. Drought Response: Simien Mountains National Park officials plan to cut and supply grass as drought hits North Gondar, affecting 115,000 households and killing thousands of livestock. Health Workforce Alarm: WHO warns Africa could face a shortage of nearly six million health workers by 2030 without major domestic investment. Road Maintenance Funding: Ethiopia’s Toll Roads Enterprise says it will allocate half of its income to routine and heavy road maintenance after posting strong 2025/26 results. Sports: Ethiopia submitted its final bid to host AFCON 2028, competing as a solo bidder.

Sudan-Ethiopia Security Spillover: The RSF says it seized strategic bases of Sarkam and Bakuri in Sudan’s Blue Nile, close to Ethiopia, warning the fighting is widening and worsening the humanitarian crisis. Ethiopia-UN Peacekeeping: The African Union condemned an attack on UNMISS patrols in South Sudan that killed two Ethiopian peacekeepers and injured seven, calling for investigations and prosecutions. Ethiopia Media Freedom: Ethiopia’s Media Authority reinstated Reuters accreditation for three Addis Ababa-based journalists after a six-month suspension. Trade & Logistics: Ethiopian Airlines launched a new Chengdu–Addis Ababa freighter route, aiming to boost Asia-Africa cargo links. Health Policy in Addis Ababa: WHO’s Africa regional committee (RC76) opened in Addis Ababa, with ministers pushing stronger regulation, local manufacturing, and sustainable health financing for Universal Health Coverage. Nile Water Response: Professor Yacob Arsano rejected Egypt’s Abay accusations as baseless, stressing Ethiopia’s right to develop Nile resources. Digital Inclusion: New assessments highlight Ethiopia’s Fayda digital ID as a driver of financial inclusion across Africa.